Installer's Extract "Finished!" But No Files Created (log & troubleshooting attempts included)

[vmetric]

p.s. doing a few last searches before posting this, I'm starting to wonder if:

1. Following 1.17 changes, the whole Forge installer replaces the files produced via Extract
2. CurseForge is the new gold standard for modpacks

So, I'll start looking into a CurseForge modpack instead of technic for the time being. I figured I'd still post this just in case someone is able to explain (or point me to an explanation of) what I'm misunderstanding (and, of course, for anyone else that runs into the same issue).

Original thread post:

Hi all, hoping some fresh eyes will pick out something I've missed as I've been banging my head against this for a while; I'm now thinking I have a fundamental misunderstanding of the changes (and implications of changes) introduced in 1.17.

After a break from Minecraft (last played 1.12) I'm hopping back in with the goal of making a Technic modpack. As far as I can find online (though, can't find a reliable 1.19 guide), the steps to setup the modpack are the same as back in the day: Extract Forge, plop the appropriate files in the modpack folders.

However, across multiple Forge versions, multiple Adoptium Java versions, and even across machines the result is the same: Forge installer GUI pops up with "Extracted successfully" while the log window only states "Finished!" and no files are created in the chosen directory. The installer log (https://pastebin.com/1XH0tvCH) shows Java version detection, mentions a few hosts w/ IPs, references Java version again, then "Finished!"

The client installer seems to work without issue (spilling many, many lines into the GUI as it installs, no errors visible), though I haven't tried launching the installed Forge profile yet.

The only common factors across machines I can come up with are Windows Defender, Adoptium, and the Forge installer itself. I'm assuming it's neither Adoptium or the installer as I'd expect many others to experience this issue if either were at fault. Between just the laptop and desktop there are a few common always-running programs (Microsoft PowerToys, TacticalRMM, Nextcloud) though I wouldn't think any of them would interfere.

List of troubleshooting steps thus far:

Spoiler

• Tried on Windows 10 20H2 on a desktop
• Tried on Windows 11 on a laptop
• Tried on Windows Sandbox in Windows 10 20H2
• Adoptium 17
• Adoptium 20
• Forge versions 1.19.4 - 45.0.50, 1.19.3 - 44.1.0, 1.18.2 - 40.2.0, and 1.17.1 - 37.1.1 (I understand 1.17 is not supported, I attempted it solely as a troubleshooting step)
• Pinging a few of the log-mentioned IPs to rule out network blocks
• Reboots in between uninstalling previous Adoptium versions and installing latest Adoptium versions
• Jarfix.exe at various points
• Running installer via admin command prompt
• Adding exception to java.exe under Windows Defender > Exploit Protection > Program settings with most (but not all) security options turned off

I'm scratching my head at this one. I have a few last-ditch-effort next steps:

Spoiler

• Updating Windows 10 to latest
• Reinstalling Windows 10 on desktop
• Trying in safe mode (if java can run in safe mode)
• Disabling all Windows Defender options