"These libraries failed to download." so I can't install forge, even though my Internet is fine

[HungryForLibraries]

I've spent the last couple hours wrestling with the installer trying to get the latest forge version (1.18.1 - 39.0.79) installed to no avail. It seems none of the libraries are getting installed at all, and while the timeout error would typically indicate my internet not working well that really doesn't seem to be the case, as it's been working perfectly fine and I can even dl the libraries directly from the website without issues.

I've updated java to no avail, deleted my .minecraft and reinstalled it without result and even wrote a script to download all the libraries just to realize their installation wasn't a simple "drop it in the libraries folder" thing. Any ideas of what this could be and how I can solve it? (or possibly even just a dump from a functioning fresh-installed forge library folder, which would hopefully work)

My installer log is at https://pastebin.com/8kakwijv

[HungryForLibraries]

I have tried that by both making sure java was allowed on all networks and straight up disabling my firewall entirely, but no dice. Still doesn't work, with the exact same error on all libraries.